After an extensive campaign that ambitiously started last spring, the European Commission under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen received the support of the European Parliament securing another mandate with a very thin majority of 370 votes, only nine more than the required minimum.

This means that Ursula von der Leyen’s new team received the weakest support European Commission has received in the last thirty years.  It is interesting that the von der Leyen received a lot more support in July as an independent candidate. Experts believe that this outcome is not worrisome and that it only shows the degree of democratic freedoms. They agree though, that divisions within the European Parliament may make it difficult to have a majority for decisions, although all this certainly does not indicate that the value foundations of the community have been shaken.

It may be too early to predict how Kaja Kallas will position herself towards Serbia.

Serbia’s President Vučić, had a meeting with the new EU High Representative in the first days of her appointment where the two agreed for the EU High Rep to visit Serbia in February of 2025.

FULFILLING CAREER OF THE HIGH REPRESENTATIVE

For Serbia, it is of great importance who will be the key interlocutors in future negotiations and cooperation. One of the most challenging roles is that of the EU High Representative for foreign policy and security. Kaja Kallas, Josep Borrell’s successor, and the new EU High Rep, was the former Prime Minister of Estonia, known as one of the loudest critics of Russian politics in Europe.

President von der Leyen described her as “the right person at the right time”. She was born in 1977 in Tallinn, Estonia, graduated in law from the University of Tartu, and worked as a lawyer specializing in European and international law. From 2018 to 2024, she served as Prime Minister of Estonia, distinguishing herself as a strong advocate of European values ​​and a sharp critic of Russian politics. Because of her attitude towards Russia, she was often called an “anti-Russian hawk”.

The key question is – can her decisions concerning our region be predicted?

KALLAS TO VISIT SERBIA IN FEBRUARY

Analysts believe that Kallas could bring a more decisive approach to EU foreign policy issues, especially in relation to Russia and China. Her appointment could influence the acceleration of the European integration process for the countries of the Western Balkans, including Serbia, but that path must follow the fulfillment of the conditions for joining.

Following the initial meeting with Kallas, President Vučić said: “It is expected that Kaja Kallas will come to Serbia in February. This was an open, honest, but not an easy conversation. We talked about Serbia’s European path, and the EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy emphasized the necessity of establishing a dialogue with Pristina, solving the case Banjska and introducing sanctions against the Russian Federation. I responded in accordance with the politics and interests of Serbia.”

PRAISE FOR SERBIA

When it comes to integrations, Serbia will rely on Marta Kos, a career diplomat from Slovenia, who oversees EU enlargement. She comes from a liberal structure, is known for setting high standards for joining the EU and often points out that membership must be earned by fulfilling all criteria.

The reality of enlargement until 2030 depends on the readiness of the candidate countries and their commitment to reforms. The new/old President von der Leyen spoke about Serbia’s progress, and praised it, securing a new financial tranche of 1.58 billion euros for Serbia under the growth plan for the Western Balkans.

A NEW ROLE – COMMISSIONER FOR DEFENSE

The EC President particularly highlighted the security risks, with the following statements: “War is raging on the borders of Europe. We must be ready. We must work more like Europeans. Just one piece of information – Russia spends nine percent of its GDP on defense, while the EU spends an average of 1.9 percent. Something is wrong with this equation. Defense spending must be increased, as we must strengthen the military industry and launch joint defense projects.”

It is important that the new team does not have an explicit aversion to expansion, therefore a place can be found for Serbia in the future, but it would be naive to expect membership before 2030. With the experienced and pragmatic approach of the state leadership in foreign policy, new contacts are already being made, and it is an important road map towards the European family.

New, but not unexpected – the European Commission will have a defense commissioner for the first time – the Lithuanian Andrius Kubilius. This appointment highlights the growing challenge of defense policy within the EU.

WHO ARE THE NEW EC MEMBERS?

The current Commissioner for Enlargement, Hungarian Oliver Varhelyi, will be the Commissioner for Animal Health and Welfare. This can be seen as his political setback, given the importance and scope of the previous portfolio.

The European Commission consists of the president and 26 commissioners, totaling 27 team members, which corresponds to the number of member states of the European Union, because each state appoints one commissioner. The commission includes a president, eight vice presidents and 18 commissioners in charge of different portfolios.

Executive Vice-Presidents:

• Teresa Ribera (Spain) – Vice-President for Clean, Just, and Competitive Transition
• Henna Virkkunen (Finland) – Vice-President for Tech Sovereignty, Security, and Democracy
• Stéphane Séjourné (France) – Vice-President for Prosperity and Industrial Strategy
• Kaja Kallas (Estonia) – High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the Commission
• Roxana Mînzatu (Romania) – Vice-President for People, Skills, and Preparedness
• Raffaele Fitto (Italy) – Vice-President for Cohesion and Reforms

Commissioners:

• Maroš Šefčovič (Slovakia) – Commissioner for Trade and Economic Security, including Customs Policy, and for Interinstitutional Relations and Transparency
• Valdis Dombrovskis (Latvia) – Commissioner for Economy and Productivity, as well as Implementation and Simplification
• Dubravka Šuica (Croatia) – Commissioner for the Mediterranean and the EU’s Southern Neighborhood
• Olivér Várhelyi (Hungary) – Commissioner for Health and Animal Welfare
• Wopke Hoekstra (Netherlands) – Commissioner for Climate, Net Zero Emissions, and Clean Growth
• Andrius Kubilius (Lithuania) – Commissioner for Defense and Space, focusing on developing the European Defense Union
• Marta Kos (Slovenia) – Commissioner for Enlargement
• Jozef Síkela (Czech Republic) – Commissioner for International Partnerships
• Costas Kadis (Cyprus) – Commissioner for Fisheries and Oceans
• Maria Luís Albuquerque (Portugal) – Commissioner for Financial Services and the Savings and Investment Union
• Hadja Lahbib (Belgium) – Commissioner for Preparedness and Crisis Management
• Magnus Brunner (Austria) – Commissioner for Internal Affairs and Migration
• Jessika Roswall (Sweden) – Commissioner for Environment, Water Resilience, and Competitive Circular Economy
• Piotr Serafin (Poland) – Commissioner for Budget, Anti-Fraud, and Public Administration
• Dan Jørgensen (Denmark) – Commissioner for Energy and Housing
• Ekaterina Zaharieva (Bulgaria) – Commissioner for Research and Innovation
• Michael McGrath (Ireland) – Commissioner for Democracy, Justice, and the Rule of Law
• Apostolos Tzitzikostas (Greece) – Commissioner for Sustainable Transport and Tourism
• Christophe Hansen (Luxembourg) – Commissioner for Agriculture and Food
• Glenn Micallef (Malta) – Commissioner for Intergenerational Fairness, Culture, Youth, and Sport

Author: IPESE Research Team
Featured image: EC