Following Joe Biden’s withdrawal from the campaign last week, the dynamics of the 2024 presidential election have taken on an entirely new dimension. After the current Vice President Kamala Harris, whom Biden publicly endorsed as a candidate, came to the forefront, the polls showed a reversal of trends that arose after the presidential debate from which Trump emerged as the perceived winner.
The debate was followed by an assassination attempt during the Republican National Convention, which brought Trump a new wave of popularity. In polls conducted by the New York Times/Siena College, the Wall Street Journal and CNN, Trump was ahead of Biden by as much as 6 points. However, this advantage virtually disappeared after Biden’s withdrawal and the positioning of Kamala Harris as the presumptive Democratic nominee.
The latest polls show a much more uncertain race: The New York Times/Siena College now puts Trump ahead of Harris by just 1 point, the Wall Street Journal by 2, and CNN polls give Trump a 3 point lead over Harris.
Both Trump and Harris now find themselves in a new, changing political environment, with both parties and their campaign staff having to quickly adjust to the evolving sentiments of the electorate as they approach November.
A deeper analysis reveals nuanced changes in the perception of the public and the electorate. Trump, while still holding a slight lead over Harris, is no longer seeing a growing lead. Harris has already made notable gains among traditionally Democratic constituencies where Biden’s support had previously been declining. For example, in the latest New York Times/Siena poll, she outperformed Biden’s earlier results among the young and minorities, while at the same time managing to maintain approval ratings among older white voters — a demographic where Biden has been relatively stable.
While Biden’s campaign has been built more on Rust Belt issues, Harris is targeting broader areas among diverse groups of voters that would allow Democrats to fare better in the Sun Belt states — Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina — where Biden has been lagging.
However, it is noticeable that Trump’s popularity has undergone a change when it comes to his perception among voters. In the course of the campaign so far, analyzes have shown that the majority of voters have a negative opinion of him. In the latest Wall Street Journal poll, Trump’s approval rating is 47% (positive) – 50% (negative), a significant improvement.
Both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris now find themselves in a new, changing political environment, with Harris working to consolidate traditional Democratic voting demographics while Trump aims to further boost his personal approval ratings. The outcome of the election remains uncertain, and both parties and their campaign staff must quickly adjust to the evolving sentiments of the electorate as they approach November.
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