The US and Serbia have a historic chance to strengthen their relations, shaping the future of their bilateral ties and the broader regional dynamics. Signing of the strategic dialogue agreement opens up a new chapter in the relations between the two countries, overcoming challenges and misunderstandings from past decades. The initiative has the potential to become a turning point in bilateral relations and bring significant benefits to both sides.
A transparent formal mechanism
The signing of the agreement between the US and Serbia, accompanied by the visit of Richard R. Verma, US Deputy Secretary of State for Management and Resources, has laid the groundwork for a clear diplomatic direction. The success of this initiative hinges on openness to dialogue, a readiness to compromise, and a mutual understanding of the long-term interests of both Serbia and the US.
Serbia can leverage strategic dialogue to strengthen its role as a reliable partner, boost its economy, diversify the energy sector, and enhance its reputation within the EU.
Strategic dialogue goes beyond rhetoric; it serves as a formal mechanism within US foreign policy, offering a structured framework to advance future relations with a potential to evolve into a foundation for strategic cooperation.
The US has repeatedly emphasized Serbia’s importance as a partner in the Western Balkans. For Serbia, this is an opportunity to enhance its political and economic standing globally.
The interest of both countries
Expectations are high, particularly given the shifting geopolitical landscape and increasing security risks and tensions. This creates a shared interest for both Belgrade and Washington in deepening their cooperation. Serbia can leverage the strategic dialogue to solidify its position as a reliable partner, boost its economy, diversify its energy sector, and enhance its standing with the EU. But what are the US interests?
At first glance, it might seem that the US has limited strategic interests in Serbia, but this is far from the case. Through a strategic dialogue with Serbia, recognized as the most significant country in the Western Balkans, the US can reaffirm its influence in a region facing strong pressure from other global powers like Russia and China.
The US has repeatedly highlighted Serbia’s importance as a key partner in the Western Balkans. For Serbia, this presents an opportunity to strengthen its political and economic standing on the global stage.
Senior US officials have consistently highlighted Serbia’s importance as a key partner in the Western Balkans. The formalization and signing of this agreement were not sudden or coincidental; they are the result of sustained efforts by Serbian state leadership and diplomacy, combined with the proactive involvement of US officials, including the current US ambassador to Serbia, Christopher Hill.
Putting the Agreement into practice
The key areas outlined in the agreement include the economy, energy, security, trade and investment, the environment, media, and the IT industry, with a particular focus on artificial intelligence. The first practical step in implementing the agreement will involve forming working groups to address these sectors. Energy security is expected to be a central topic, especially considering the global energy crisis and Serbia’s efforts to diversify its energy sources. The US could provide technological support and investments in renewable energy, while Serbia could seize this opportunity to modernize its energy infrastructure.
According to data from the American Chamber of Commerce in Serbia (AmCham), American companies currently employ approximately 112,000 workers in Serbia. To date, these companies have invested over $4 billion in the Serbian economy. Key American investors include NCR, which plans to expand its workforce to over 4,200 employees following the completion of its Belgrade campus, and Philip Morris, which acquired the Niš Tobacco Industry and has made significant investments in modernization and job creation. Future investments are expected to grow further, creating a “spillover effect” that could attract additional foreign investors inspired by the US’s example.
Paving the Way for Bilateral Cooperation with Trump’s Administration
This dialogue can support Serbia on its path toward European integration, as it serves as a positive signal from across the Atlantic, indicating a willingness for deeper cooperation.
The strategic cooperation agreement is being signed during the transition period between administrations in Washington, just ten days before president-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. This provides a solid foundation for fostering even stronger relations with the Trump administration, with the potential to elevate bilateral ties to a new level.
American companies in Serbia currently employ 30,000 people – a figure that is expected to grow. This growth is likely to create a “spillover effect,” encouraging other countries to invest in Serbia by following the US’s example.
The US has established similar strategic dialogues with other countries, including Poland (signed in 2008, focusing on security and military cooperation), Greece (signed in 2018, emphasizing energy and regional stability), Egypt (signed in 1998, centering on economic and military cooperation), India (signed in 2005, highlighting technological and trade collaboration), Cyprus (signed in 2020, aimed at strengthening energy and security ties), Uzbekistan (signed in 2018, targeting economic modernization and regional security), and Oman (signed in 2014, focusing on energy cooperation and counterterrorism efforts). These agreements reflect the structured approach of US foreign policy in fostering partnerships worldwide.
Author: IPESE Research Team
Featured Image: Srđan Ilić
