In American politics, there is a well-known expression – the “shy voter.” This theory points to the idea that survey participants are not necessarily truthful about whom they plan to vote for. In this particular case, this is often linked to Trump supporters, as in certain circles it is not popular to admit that one will vote for him as a controversial candidate. Thus, people consciously avoid the stigma. This means that these polls might be underestimating Trump’s popularity.
We are likely facing the most uncertain and consequential U.S. presidential election in history. Political analysts are divided in their predictions but agree on one thing: every vote matters, and the winner may be decided by fractions, with thousands or even hundreds of votes in one of the 50 states that will choose the president of the world’s most powerful country on Tuesday.
Even pollsters, while providing broadly similar results, vary considerably in states where the fight is fiercest. The state of affairs is well illustrated on the portal projects.fivethirtyeight.com, which displays results based on the latest surveys: Trump wins in 53 out of 100 scenarios, and Kamala Harris in 47, with a situation where neither candidate reaches the needed number of electoral votes considered “unlikely” (less than a one percent chance).
DIFFERENT RESULTS BASED ON DIFFERENT POLLS
Evidence that this race remains almost undecided at the finish line is found in recent national-level polling from various agencies, each with its own latest survey results. According to AtlasIntel’s November 2 poll, Trump leads by 2% (49:47); TIPP Insights on November 1 shows them tied at 48% each; Kaplan Strategies’ October 31 survey gives Trump a 1% edge (48:47); SoCal Strategies shows similar results (50:49 for Trump); Echelon Strategies’ October 28-31 poll favors Harris by 2% (49:47); and American Pulse Research and Polling’s October 28-30 survey favors Harris (48:46). On Message’s October 27-30 poll shows a 2% lead for Trump (47:47), Quantus Insights (October 27-30) has Trump leading 49% to 48%, while RABA Research’s October 29 poll shows Harris with the largest lead, 48% to Trump’s 44%.
Even pollsters, while providing broadly similar results, vary considerably in states where the fight is fiercest. The state of affairs is well illustrated on the portal projects.fivethirtyeight.com, which displays results based on the latest surveys: Trump wins in 53 out of 100 scenarios, and Kamala Harris in 47, with a situation where neither candidate reaches the needed number of electoral votes considered “unlikely” (less than a one percent chance).
THE BATTLEGROUND IN SWING STATES
The most anticipated polls, however, are not national but rather focused on “swing states,” where the election will ultimately be decided. These states include Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Wisconsin. Good news for Kamala Harris came from Marist College, which found her leading Trump by 3 points in Michigan, 2 in Pennsylvania, and 2 in Wisconsin. However, this optimism was tempered by Echelon Insights, which showed Trump ahead by 5 points in Pennsylvania and 1 point in Georgia.
Analysts caution that, despite close polling, it’s possible for one candidate to win all seven swing states. Why? In each of these states, both candidates are within the margin of error, meaning either could win. Thus, despite tight polling data, the Electoral College outcome on Tuesday could still be a clear victory.
SHY VOTER THEORY
Regarding the race in the mentioned “swing states” (states where neither Republicans nor Democrats have a clear majority and either Kamala or Trump could win), the projections on projects.fivethirtyeight.com reveal the following as we approach the election: In Pennsylvania, the race is extremely tight, with Trump holding a slight 0.3% advantage. Similarly, in Nevada, where every vote will count until the very end, Trump has a minimal lead of 0.5%. Harris holds slight leads in Wisconsin and Michigan, where she is projected to win with a narrow 0.7% and 0.9% margin, respectively. The “least” uncertain, yet still very uncertain, races are in North Carolina (1.6% in favor of Trump), Georgia (1.7% for Trump), and Arizona (2.3% in favor of Trump).
In Pennsylvania, the race is the most uncertain, and there will be a battle for every vote until the end – a slight advantage is still given to Trump – 0.3 percent; it is similar in Nevada, where Trump is given a minimum advantage of 0.5 percent; slightly larger differences, but in favor of Kamala, are in Wisconsin and Michigan, where the victory of the Democratic candidate is projected, with a small difference of 0.7 and 0.9 percent, respectively; The “least” uncertain races (and in fact very uncertain) are in North Carolina (1.6 percent in favor of Trump), Georgia (1.7 in favor of Trump), and in Arizona (2.3 percent in favor of Trump).
In American politics, there’s a known expression, the “shy voter theory,” suggesting that survey participants might not always reveal whom they’ll vote for. In this particular case, it primarily applies to Trump supporters, as admitting support for him as a controversial candidate might be unpopular in some circles. To avoid the stigma, people might withhold their true choice, meaning these polls could underestimate Trump’s popularity.
By Wednesday morning (European time), it will be clear which polling agencies were correct, and the future direction of the United States—and, consequently, the rest of the world—will also become apparent for the next four years.
Author: IPESE Research Team
Featured image: BBC
