Tensions in the Middle East and concerns of the international community are growing by the day along with the threat of revenge from Iran for the assassination of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran last month. In order to find a peaceful solution, negotiators and international mediators met this Thursday in Qatar to launch key talks aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza…

Negotiations that began yesterday in Doha aim to end nearly a year of conflict in the region and secure the release of 115 hostages. These talks began in the shadow of potential Iranian revenge for the assassination of Haniyeh on July 31. The US has positioned its warships, submarines and aircraft to protect Israel and prevent further escalation, although there may not have been a need for this as initial reports indicate that the talks are off to a positive start.

The Israeli delegation is led by Mossad Director David Barnea, Homeland Security Chief Ronen Barr and the military’s hostage affairs chief Nitzan Alon. The United States is represented by CIA director Bill Burns and Middle East envoy Brett McGurk, and the talks are being mediated by the host, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Jassim Al Thani, in the presence of Egyptian intelligence chief Abbas Kamel.

Hamas has refused to participate in the negotiations – Basem Naim from the Hamas political bureau told CNN that they do not want new negotiations but the implementation of previously agreed conditions.

Can the international community really keep the situation under control?

The leaders of Great Britain, France and Germany have warned Iran that it will bear responsibility for any possible attacks on Israel, stressing that such actions could seriously jeopardize ongoing negotiations on a ceasefire and the release of hostages. “Iran will bear responsibility for any attacks that would further escalate regional tensions,” the joint statement said.

The signatories of the statement, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, agreed with mediators from the US, Egypt and Qatar that negotiations between Israel and Hamas must continue without delay.

The ceasefire talks that began on Thursday may be the last chance to diplomatically end the ongoing conflict and secure the release of the hostages.

Despite international warnings, Iran has rejected calls for restraint. Nasser Khanani, a spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, labeled the West’s demands as illogical and pro-Israel, arguing that they contradict the principles of international law, according to IRNA.

In a diplomatic effort to prevent further escalation, British Prime Minister Starmer spoke to Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian, urging Iran not to take military action against Israel and warning of the high risk of misjudgment. Alongside the talks, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, firmly rejected any kind of compromise, warning of divine retribution in the event of any retreat.

As tensions rise, mediators seek to salvage ceasefire talks in Doha, with representatives from Qatar, Egypt and the United States pushing to implement an agreement proposed by US President Joe Biden in May.

What is Biden’s plan for resolving the situation in the Middle East?

In May, President Joe Biden unveiled a comprehensive proposal aimed at ending the conflict in Gaza, in three phases. The proposal, allegedly initiated by Israel, seeks to link the ceasefire to humanitarian efforts, ie. to regulate the release of hostages and prisoners.

The initial phase includes a six-week plan in which Israeli forces would withdraw from populated areas in Gaza. During this period, a number of hostages — women, the elderly and the injured — would be exchanged for Palestinian prisoners as part of a temporary truce.

The second phase of the plan was designed to secure the release of all remaining hostages, including male soldiers, and establish a permanent cessation of hostilities. The third and final phase would initiate reconstruction in the Gaza Strip and facilitate the return of the bodies of deceased hostages to their families.

Despite the initial positive response from Israel and Hamas, the parties failed to reach an agreement on the details of the proposed solution. Issues such as the sequence of hostage and prisoner exchanges, the exact number of Palestinian prisoners to be freed, and the specifics of the withdrawal of Israeli troops remain disputed.

Is there any chance of a deal being reached?

The ceasefire talks that began on Thursday may be the last chance to diplomatically end the ongoing conflict and secure the release of the hostages, but also to stop Iran from seeking revenge for the death of Ismail Haniyeh.

US and Middle East diplomats are actively working to prevent Iran from launching an attack that could escalate into a wider regional conflict. However, Iran’s position, as articulated by the United Nations mission, is that Iran’s response to Israel will in no way depend on a ceasefire in Gaza.

Despite concerted pressure from mediating nations and the international community, the shadow of Iranian threats and Hamas’s refusal to sit down at the negotiating table leave the possibility that the negotiations will be futile, and the agreements reached will be rejected.

Author: IPESE Research Team
Author of the featured photo: Ziv Goren