Author: Will Donahue, President of the College Republicans of America

In recent years, there’s been a noticeable shift amongst Gen Z students—who are now joining the working population—towards conservative values. Recent polls show increased support for former President Donald Trump with stark changes since the 2020 election. Drastic changes in polling, while surprising to some, reflect a broader dissatisfaction with current political and economic conditions under Democratic leadership. There are a few factors driving this trend and they carry the potential for major implications for the Democrat Party in future elections. As President of College Republicans of America, I have had the pleasure of watching this unfold in real time over the last six years.

Pew Research reported the beginning of this shift in 2020 where the 18-29 voting demographic moved from a thirty-point lead for Hillary in 2016 to twenty-four points for Biden in 2020. April NYT Siena Polling is now showing that lead has shrunk to a single point. An April NPR/PBS/Marist National poll alternatively found that Trump is leading Biden by two points among Millennial and Gen Z voters. One of the primary reasons for this shift is economic instability. Many young people are struggling with student debt, rising living costs, and limited job opportunities.

Gen Z splits heavily from their parents over President Trump, but everyone is in agreement on President Biden; 57% of voters aged 45-64 approved of President Trump’s immigration policies and only 32% approve of President Biden.

Despite the promises made by the Biden administration, many young Americans feel that the economic relief they anticipated has not materialized. The rising costs of living, particularly housing and healthcare, are squeezing their finances. A significant number of young voters believe that the current administration’s economic policies have failed to address these critical issues effectively​​. Polling suggests that only 28% of voters aged 18-29 approve of the way President Biden is handling the economy. That same poll showed 67% approved of Mr. Trump’s economy when he was President. Only 9% rated the U.S. economy as “excellent” or “good” compared to 65% giving it a “poor” rating. The most surprising part of the NYT poll was that when asked about their demographics, 41% of respondents reported they were liberal and only 17% reported that they were conservative. In other words, Biden is losing with young voters in his own party.

Conservative economic principles, which emphasize fiscal responsibility, protectionism, lower taxes, and job creation, are becoming increasingly appealing to young voters. These principles are seen as offering a more viable path to financial stability and upward mobility. Inflation has also been a persistent concern, affecting everything from groceries to gas prices. This has disproportionately impacted young people, who often have less financial cushion to absorb rising costs. The conservative critique of the current administration’s handling of inflation — including concerns about excessive government spending and its impact on the economy — resonates with many young voters. They are looking for leadership that can effectively tackle inflation and create a stable economic environment.

Job creation is another critical issue. Despite a recovering job market, many young people are finding it difficult to secure positions that match their qualifications and provide a living wage. The conservative emphasis on deregulation and support for small businesses is seen as a way to spur job creation and economic growth, providing more opportunities for young people to enter the workforce and build their careers​.

Immigration policy, however, paints a slightly different picture than the economy but still shows that Gen Z is unsatisfied with President Biden. While many young people support compassionate and comprehensive immigration reform, there is also a growing concern about illegal immigration and its impact on job competition and national security. The conservative stance on securing the borders and enforcing immigration laws is beginning to appeal to those who feel that the current policies are too lenient and potentially harmful to the country’s economic stability and safety​. Polling shows President Trump holds a narrow four-point lead over Biden, with 68% of Gen Z voters disapproving of President Biden’s immigration decisions. Gen Z splits heavily from their parents over President Trump, but everyone is in agreement on President Biden; 57% of voters aged 45-64 approved of President Trump’s immigration policies and only 32% approve of President Biden.

The conservative critique of the current administration’s handling of inflation — including concerns about excessive government spending and its impact on the economy — resonates with many young voters. They are looking for leadership that can effectively tackle inflation and create a stable economic environment.

Gen Z is known for its desire to see fundamental changes in American politics. However, there’s a growing perception that the current administration is out of touch with their needs and aspirations. What Gen Z overwhelmingly agrees on, to the tune of 87% of young voters, is that Joe Biden is too old to be an effective President. The potential for a political realignment is evident in the polling data. For decades, young voters overwhelmingly supported Democratic candidates. Recent polls suggest a more competitive landscape. A thirty-point swing in youth support will have profound implications for future elections, as both parties work to redefine their strategies and voting blocks. As we move towards the 2024 election, it will be crucial to watch how these trends develop and what they mean for the future of American politics.