Global strategic and financial consequences nowhinge on the outcome of July 7 ballots in France — a two-round process that holds significant implications for the country’s role in the EU and NATO. IPESE gives you a comprehensive guide to understanding this pivotal election.

On June 30, France took a significant step towards a potential right government as Marine Le Pen’s National Rally achieved good results in the first round of the snap parliamentary elections. Early estimates by Ipsos indicate that the National Rally secured 34% of the vote on Sunday, while French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance suffered considerable losses, coming in third with 20.3%. The left-wing alliance made a strong showing with 28.1% of the vote. Seat projections suggest Le Pen’s party could win 230-280 seats, the left-wing alliance 125-165 seats, and Macron’s coalition 70-100 seats in the 577-seat National Assembly.

The shift in the French political landscape began on June 9 when President Macron called for a snap election after a significant defeat to the far-right National Rally in the European elections.

This election is one of the most consequential in recent history. National Rally stands a chance of forming a government in France, a nuclear-armed member of the U.N. Security Council with a major role in global security. However, they are skeptical of France’s engagement with both the EU and NATO, and without France, both institutions could be significantly weakened. Financial markets are also on edge, fearing political tensions could destabilize the world’s seventh-largest economy and the eurozone.

French parliamentary elections do not use proportional representation, but rely on a two-round vote across 577 constituencies, where local dynamics play a crucial role. The first round took place on June 30, and runoffs are scheduled for July 7. In each constituency, if no candidate wins 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates, along with any others who secured at least 12.5% of registered voters, advance to the second round.

Early estimates indicate that the National Rally secured 34% of the vote, while French President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance suffered considerable losses with 20.3%. 

The Rise of a Defining Political Moment and Challenges for Macron’s Coallition

The dramatic shift in the French political landscape began on June 9 when President Emmanuel Macron called for a snap election after a significant defeat to the far-right National Rally in the European elections. His goal was to counter the right’s momentum, but it remains a risky gamble that may backfire. Although Macron will remain president until 2027, he may need to navigate a government and prime minister potentially hostile to his agenda, raising the specter of political deadlock. Jordan Bardella, a leading candidate for prime minister if the National Rally wins, could further complicate Macron’s presidency.

National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, is closer to power than ever. To secure a majority in the French parliament, Le Pen’s party needs at least 289 seats. Current projections suggest the National Rally could secure between 230 and 280 seats, a significant increase from their current 88 MPs. If successful, Macron would have to enter a “cohabitation” arrangement with the National Rally, appointing a far-right prime minister. Le Pen’s party has already formed alliances with some center-right factions, but it remains to be seen whether they can gather enough support to reach an absolute majority. Le Pen’s political strategy and potential coalition partners will play a crucial role in the final outcome.

The second round of voting on July 7 will be crucial in determining the future direction of France and its role on the world stage.

Ensemble, the coalition backing President Macron, is facing significant losses. While it currently controls 250 seats, projections indicate it may fall below 110 seats. For the first time, Macron’s coalition is not running as a single party, with Horizons, led by former PM Édouard Philippe, running independently but potentially rejoining the coalition post-election.

Despite these challenges, high turnout means Macron’s coalition might not be entirely wiped out. In up to 170 constituencies, three candidates are likely to advance to the second round, increasing from just eight in 2022. This dynamic adds pressure on third-placed candidates to withdraw and support others to defeat the National Rally.

France’s left-wing parties have united in an unexpected alliance, known as the New Popular Front. This coalition includes the far-left France Unbowed (LFI), the Socialist Party, the Communist Party, and the Greens. Running single candidates in 546 constituencies, this alliance poses a significant challenge to both Macron and the far right.

Implications for Global Order and the Balkans 

The rise of the National Rally in France could significantly alter the dynamics within the EU. Historically, France has been a consistent advocate for deeper European integration. A shift in France’s stance could weaken the EU’s cohesion and effectiveness, particularly in areas like economic policy, migration, and climate change. The National Rally’s skepticism towards the EU threatens to disrupt ongoing initiatives aimed at strengthening European unity and responding to global challenges. This could embolden other Eurosceptic movements across the continent, further fracturing the EU.

France plays a critical role in NATO, contributing significantly to its military capabilities and strategic initiatives. The National Rally’s ambivalence towards NATO and its preference for a more independent national defense policy could undermine the alliance’s collective security framework. This shift could embolden adversaries, particularly Russia, which has historically sought to weaken NATO. A less cohesive NATO could face challenges in responding effectively to security threats, including those in Eastern Europe and the Balkans.

Right-wing government could weaken the EU’s position as a neutral mediator, reducing the effectiveness of its diplomatic efforts in the Balkans.

The Balkans region, with its complex political landscape and history of ethnic conflicts, could be particularly affected by a shift in French foreign policy. France has been an important player in efforts to stabilize the Balkans, supporting initiatives for integration into the EU and NATO. A change in France’s stance could reduce support for these efforts, potentially leading to increased instability in the region. Countries in the Balkans, many of which are still navigating their post-conflict transitions and seeking EU membership, might find themselves in a more uncertain geopolitical environment, which could create a vacuum that external powers, such as Russia or China, might exploit successfully.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to Serbia in 2019 underscored France’s commitment to strengthening bilateral relations and supporting Serbia’s EU integration efforts. During his visit, Macron emphasized the importance of regional stability and expressed support for Serbia’s aspirations to join the EU. He also pledged to work towards a more balanced dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo, reflecting France’s role as a mediator in the region.

However, the National Rally’s rise to power could alter this dynamic significantly. The National Rally has always had connections to Serbia and has historically defended Serbia’s stance on Kosovo, firmly opposing Kosovo’s independence and aligning with Serbia’s longstanding refusal to recognize Kosovo as a sovereign state. If the National Rally gains influence, France’s foreign policy could shift to be more sympathetic to Serbian viewpoints, potentially complicating the EU-facilitated dialogue between Serbia and Kosovo.

This shift could undermine ongoing efforts to stabilize the Balkans and foster cooperation between the countries in the region. Additionally, this new stance could weaken the EU’s position as a neutral mediator, thereby reducing the effectiveness of its diplomatic efforts in the Balkans.

Le Pen’s political strategy and potential coalition partners will play a crucial role in the final outcome.

What’s Next?

The French parliamentary election is poised to reshape the country’s political landscape and has the potential to disrupt the global order. As the right edges closer to power, the implications for the EU, NATO, and the broader international community are profound. The second round of voting on July 7 will be crucial in determining the future direction of France and its role on the world stage.

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