The establishment of an economic corridor starting from India is an ambitious 4,800-kilometer project that includes American allies. Serbia is in a favourable geographical position. 

We are witnessing a new era in US-India relations ― their partnership is stronger, closer and more dynamic than ever before. It is not a secret that those who are the most powerful dictate geopolitical relations, and that those who are ’smaller’ need to find their positions wisely. How will it affect the rest of the world and what new economic corridors will the future distribution of power bring?

Golden age is upon India – it could become the world’s third largest economy by 2027 with a GDP that amounts to five trillion dollars. At this moment, it is the fifth largest economy in the world, behind the USA, China, Japan and Germany. 

A wider geostrategic role of this corridor, thanks to America, will be the diversification of the economy and trade. India is getting a historic chance to break out of China’s grasp and replace China as a manufacturing base.

A colossal undertaking

The establishment of the India – Middle East – Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC) was made official in September 2023, with the ambitious project stretching for 4,800 kilometers and including American allies. It starts from the Indian port of Mumbai all the way to the Arabian Gulf towards Europe. The undertaking is colossal and was born out of geopolitical and economic needs, and consists of an eastern and northern leg. IMEC is a response to the growing economic dependence on the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, by making this corridor official, the West is sending a clear message to China that it will no longer have a monopoly on cooperation with Asia. Unpredictable economic policy and increased risks to critical supply caused the process of creating favorable supply chains through partnerships with those countries that share a minimum of common values ​​and interests. China used to be a reliable production base without political ambitions, but after the COVID-19 pandemic and the aggression against Ukraine, we got a glimpse of the first contours of China’s geopolitical ambitions. Europe is very vulnerable to strategic supply from the PRC. This vulnerability is based on geographic, political, security and economic factors.

Political dimensions

Serbia is in a favorable geographical position, due to which it has the possibility to get included into this project. This would increase its geostrategic importance and economic power. However, Serbia’s orientation is one of the important conditions.

In case of an armed conflict between China and Taiwan, at least 8 to 12 countries will join the conflict, resulting in the blockade of the roads leading to and from China. In case the said conflict does not occur, there is a risk that Beijing will suspend the delivery of critical raw materials, semi-products and final products to impose pressure. China’s display of power with Lithuania over Taiwan ended up in as much as 80% of trade being suspended. Beijing went so far as not to buy products containing Lithuanian parts. The situation is similar in the field of critical raw materials. The United States treats the issue of critical raw materials as a domain of national security. One of the solutions is the creation of an economic corridor that has independent political and economic dimension. This corridor includes US allied countries. Symbolically, the road starts from the largest democratic country – India. However, one of the key countries in the direction of the new economic corridor is Saudi Arabia. On May 3, it was announced that the US and Saudi Arabia were close to concluding a security pact that would include US security guarantees and the development of a civilian nuclear program. In order for Saudi Arabia to enter this deal, which includes the delivery of more modern weapons, it needs to stop buying Chinese weapons and limit Chinese investments.

In terms of the security of this corridor, no one but America has the capacity to fully protect it. In order to achieve this, it is important to preserve Kissinger’s approach and the balance of power in the Middle East.

Trade diversification

A wider geostrategic role of this corridor, thanks to America, will be the diversification of the economy and trade. India is getting a historic chance to break out of China’s grasp and replace China as a manufacturing base. On the example of IMEC, we see that the values ​​and alliance with America are a stimulus for the economy while economy and security remain inseparable categories. In terms of protecting this corridor, no one but the Americans has the capacity to fully protect it. In order to achieve this, it is important to preserve Kissinger’s approach and the balance of power in the Middle East. At least five ports in the Persian (Arabian) Gulf will be needed for economic operations. The Iran factor is a likely and dangerous threat to the stretch from Mumbai to the Middle East, while the land route from the United Arab Emirates through Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Israel is relatively protected. American troops with Patriot systems and military bases guarantee complete security in the depths of the Arabian Peninsula. The port of Haifa as the last point to Europe is partially threatened by the actions and operations of Hamas. The attack on Israel, on October 7, 2023, is interpreted by some Israeli experts as lighting the fuse for the explosion of the Middle East. Had there been a different stance of Jordan and Saudi Arabia after the attack on October 7, there would have been nothing of the economic corridor. The Middle East does not have its NATO or its EU, which is why it has America to preserve the fragile stability of the region. We see that the economic corridor is guided by economic, value and security interests. The first point that the corridor meets in Europe is the Greek port of Piraeus. Serbia is in a favorable geographical position, due to which it has the possibility to get included into this project. This would increase its geostrategic importance and economic power. However, Serbia’s orientation remains one of the important conditions.

In terms of the security of this corridor, no one but America has the capacity to fully protect it. In order to achieve this, it is important to preserve Kissinger’s approach and the balance of power in the Middle East.

The image source: https://greekcitytimes.com/2024/03/21/greece-and-india-history-imec/