French voters banded together to prevent Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) from taking power. Voter turnout in yesterday’s second round of extraordinary parliamentary elections was 66.6% (compared to 46.2% in 2022), which is the figure that best reflects the high political and social stakes of these elections.

Just a week ago, Macron seemed headed for disaster, as his snap election not only failed to stop Marine Le Pen, but brought her party within a stone’s throw of power. By Sunday evening, his centrist coalition had nevertheless “prevented the worst” and survived as a parliamentary force, albeit in a significantly reduced format. However, the reality is that the far right is now stronger and the liberals are weaker. Before the snap elections, the president had the largest group in the parliament. Now he will find himself in a situation where the prime minister will most likely be an opposition politician, and his authority at home and credibility abroad will be damaged.

However, a strong anti-Le Pen coalition was activated after the first round of voting, effectively blocking National Rally candidates from coming to power. On Sunday night, it emerged that the RN, now under the leadership of Jordan Bardella, had secured 143 seats – an increase of 54 on 2022, but significantly short of the 289 needed for a majority. While the RN gained more seats, Macron’s liberal coalition, Ensemble, lost 76 seats and ended up with 168 seats. Prime Minister Gabriel Atal has offered to resign, although it remains unclear who would succeed him. Despite the challenges, Macron expressed optimism, telling allies that their ideas remained strong and voter support had not waned.

The results of the parliamentary elections raised the question of whether a politically weakened Paris can still effectively push for significant reforms at the European level. While tactical voting prevented a far right majority, the political landscape remains uncertain.

In the first round, held on June 30, RN candidates in many cases led in their districts, but failed to achieve convincing victories. The high turnout made it possible for three or even four candidates in over 300 districts to go to the second round. After that, over 200 candidates stepped down to support those who have the best chance of winning the RN.

On election night, Bardella denounced what he described as an “unnatural alliance” between Macron and the leftists, designed to thwart the National Rally’s significant momentum. The high-stakes elections attracted a significant voter turnout, the largest in two decades, in stark contrast to the usual decline in turnout after the first round.

Although the left has succeeded, their triumph is more than complicated. The coalition, made up of radical elements such as France Invincible, the Socialist Party, the Greens and the Communist Party, remained united in the week leading up to the vote, but revealed major internal divisions and a lack of leadership. The unconquered France of Jean-Luc Mélenchon increased the number of its representatives in Parliament, as did the Socialist Party. Regardless, the political landscape remains divided, with no faction showing any possibility of forming a majority. Governing France under these conditions will be complex and fraught with challenges. The leftist alliance and Macron’s liberals have agreed to cooperate and vote tactically to prevent Marine Le Pen from winning, but for now deeper coalition building between the groups appears unlikely.

If no party secures a majority, France faces a period of negotiations and potential instability.

Veteran radical leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon demanded that Macron appoint a leftist prime minister, thereby recognizing his party’s performance. However, Mélenchon’s radical politics and the reluctance of other left-wing parties to fully support him complicate the prospects for this. The broader left-wing coalition — under the banner of the New People’s Front — is already falling apart. Its leaders sent conflicting messages on Sunday night about their goals. While Mélenchon said the left would implement “our manifesto, and nothing but our manifesto,” MEP Raphael Glucksmann, the leader of a minor party in the coalition, appeared more conciliatory, offering “talk, debate and a change in political culture.“ If no party secures a majority, France faces a period of negotiations and potential instability. Macron could appoint a transitional government, keeping Atal as prime minister.

European reactions and possible consequences

“The worst is averted,” a senior EU diplomat said on Sunday night, reflecting the relief felt in Brussels. At that time, the only thing that was clear was that the RN failed to secure a majority in the French Parliament, despite expectations after the first round of voting. However, this only marked the beginning of a turbulent period for France, and thus for Germany – two key players in the EU now struggling with internal political conflicts.

France is thrust into a potentially long-term political impasse that could strain relations and the functioning of the EU. President Macron, previously influential in driving the EU’s trade, defense and strategic autonomy agendas, now finds himself in a position where his influence is weakened by domestic challenges. The domestic turmoil comes at an awkward time, especially with the possibility of a second Trump term in the US. Instability in the French parliament makes the formation of a stable and permanent government unlikely, which affects decision-making processes in the run-up to the 2027 presidential elections.

Before the snap elections, the president had the largest group in the parliament. Now he will find himself in a situation where the prime minister will most likely be an opposition politician, and his authority at home and credibility abroad will be damaged.

European diplomats and officials are now assessing the consequences of the French election results on the activities of the EU Council — where EU ministers negotiate on various issues. The absence of a far-right victory prevents immediate problems for the EU, such as potential conflicts over support for Ukraine or migration policy, especially with governments like Viktor Orbán’s in Hungary. However, just a day after the second round of elections in France, Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella joined the RN to the newly founded parliamentary group: Patriots for Europe, founded by Orbán, and thereby brought the group to the third largest place in the European Parliament.

The lack of a clear majority could have significant implications for the enlargement process of the European Union, especially when it comes to the Balkans. France, under President Emmanuel Macron, has been a key player in shaping EU policies, including enlargement strategies. Given the fragmentation that will inevitably occur, the French government’s ability to pursue a coherent and proactive EU enlargement policy could be severely hampered.

On election night, Bardella denounced what he described as an “unnatural alliance” between Macron and the leftists, designed to thwart the National Rally’s momentum.

The results of the parliamentary elections raised the question of whether a politically weakened Paris can still effectively push for significant reforms at the European level. While tactical voting prevented a far-right majority, the political landscape remains uncertain. The next steps in forming a stable government will be crucial in shaping France’s future governance and its role in the wider European context. The coming months will be decisive in determining how France will navigate this complex political terrain, balancing the demands of different political factions while addressing pressing national and international issues.

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